The Mortgage Crisis- A message to my father

It our job as top producing real estate agents to stay current on the housing market...locally and nationally. It is also our job to educate our clients on the market. And, selfishly, in an effort to support the facts that I have been saying to my father for the past 12 months, I felt the need to post this information. (Dad, are you there??)

Here are some interesting national statistics I received from "my numbers guy", Michael Farrell, Assistant VP of Bank of America Home Loans, Mid Atlantic region:

*A new record was hit today – 14.41% of ALL U.S. mortgages are currently in default. Keep in mind 4 states make up 43% of all foreclosures (California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona)
* First time ever, Prime mortgage delinquencies out number sub-prime delinquencies. This is due to job loss and the difficulty in modifying Prime loans due to already “good” rates and it’s not about a bad loan
* FHA loans rate of default has increased again (again still mainly in 4 states)
* The amount of loans currently in default and in foreclosure now exceeds the number of homes for sale today.

So to my father, The Mortgage Crisis goes far beyond the fact that lenders gave bad loans to unqualified buyers. The banks are not the sole reason for the issues we are seeing in the housing market. You are not bailing out people who 'got in over their heads' and made poor financial decisions. The economy as a whole is impacting the housing market. Don't be so bitter.. By the way, I love you, Dad!

Carmelle

Fannie Mae is going to be a LANDLORD!

Outside the box thinking for Fannie Mae!

Fannie Mae has announced a Deed-for-Lease (D4L) program to help struggling homeowners avoid forclosure and also stay in their current house by paying rent. This is in conjunction with the Deed-in-Lieu of Foreclosure(DIL)Program. In other words, the end result is that Fannie Mae gets the house and you are no longer the homeowner.

Of course there are guidelines and criteria for progam eligibility.

Here are some brief highlights:

* You can have only one trust on the property. If you have a home equity loan or line of credit or second trust, you do not qualify.

* You have to determine if Fannie Mae funds your current mortgage. To do this, go to Fannie Mae's loan lookup website and put in your address:


* Your current loan servicing company will be responsible for implementing the program. In other words, contact the company to which you make your mortgage payments.

* You have to show a hardship or difficulty making your current mortgage payments.

* You can't show too much hardship..you need to show that you are able of paying the current rental market rate for the property. As a guideline, the rental value must be 31% or less of your household income.

*Servicers can start offering this immediately.

Call 'The Power of 3' for more details! We are here to be your real estate resource!

Carmelle Shea

TAX CREDIT EXTENSION-Signed, Sealed and Delivered!

President Obama has signed the bill to extend the $8000tax credit to first time home buyers. He has also extended the bill give a tax credit to homeowners who want to buy. Looking at it from a local real estate market point of view, this is going to further enhance our currently stable market. There is little inventory on the market and MANY buyers. If you are thinking of selling, this is the time.

First Time Home Buyer FRENZY!

As we all know, the end of the 1st time home buyer tax credit is supposed to come to an end on November 30th. The $8000 tax credit has resulted in a SELLER's real estate market for any home priced at $400K or less. YES, you read this correctly... a SELLERs Market! Any one who was or is in this price range knows this first hand... Competing contracts, escalation clauses with offers above asking price, writing mulitple contracts, running see a property as soon as it comes on the market in hopes to be the first to submit an offer, agents begging fellow agents to give them a heads up on when a property will be coming available... it's been NUTS! I felt like it was 2005 all over again! The appraisers have been keeping the values in control as not to allow for inflated sales prices, which is what put us in this mess in the first place.

Last night, the Senate approved an extension of the current $8000 tax credit for first time home buyers to continue through April 2010. The House is expected to approve this in the next day or so. Then on to the final signatures at the White House. This will hopefully keep consumer confidence up... I hope the extension allows for a balance in the first time home buyer market!

Carmelle Shea

Tax Credit for HOMEOWNERS--Could it be?

This is what I've been mentioning during my real estate discussions with friends. The middle value real estate market has come to a hault due to depreciating house values (and decreased consumer confidence in housing, employment and the economy in general). A homeowner who is lucky enough to sell their current home without bringing money to the table, doesn't want to do so since they will have $0.00 to put toward another property. Renting is an option, but not always a desireable one. Now, there is a new proposal for a tax credit for home owners... Here's the initial jist of it: current or previous homeowners who have owned a home for 5 consecutive years out of the past 8 years may receive a tax credit of $6500 for the purchase of a new home. The income cap for this program is at $125,000 for single income family, $225,000 for a dual income family. I am curious to see how this pans out!! I'll keep you posted!

Carmelle Shea

Shenstone Farm, Leesburg VA

If you are looking for a home with picturesque views and spacious lots in Loudoun County, Virginia, be sure to check out 'Shenstone Farm' in Leesburg, VA. Located four miles off the Dulles Greenway and two miles from Leesburg's quaint shops, restaurants and historic district, Shenstone Farm is an ideal community of about 125+ homes all with at least 3 acres or more. If you would like to learn more about Shenstone Farm, call Vicky Noufal at 703-402-5416.

Sold out in Loudoun County

It's been a busy August! Buyers are out in droves trying to taking advantage of the $8000 first-time buyer federal tax credit which is coming to its expiration date on November 30th, 2009. The tax credit seems to have done its job. That, along with attractively set low interest rates and we are facing much different challenges than we were dealing with in Fall of 2008. Our inventory is practically sold out. Homes under 400k are hard to find and prices will and have begun to rise in this price range. New home builders know it, first time buyers know it and soon the rest of the world will realize that change is in the air. How exciting!! Call Vicky Noufal at 703-402-5416 for your local real estate needs.

Have we hit bottom yet in the real estate market?

HAVE WE HIT BOTTOM IN THE REAL ESTATE MARKET YET? Probably one of the most frequently asked questions that I'm asked and of course, it's an impossible question to answer. The only way to know that we've hit bottom in the real estate market is to be back up on the rise again. I think the question can only be answered region by region and only time will tell the full story... but if I had to give you an opinion today, I would say that we did hit bottom last Fall of 2008. Many buyers were holding back or walking away from new construction deals and leaving their deposits on the table. Consumer confidence was at an all time low and the number of sales transactions showed it. There were a number of 'spec' homes sitting idle and the builders were getting anxious. Some of the best buys of 2009 were picking up these early winter steals.

Over the past few months, change is definitely in the air. It seems that there are multiple offers on most homes under $500k in Loudoun and Fairfax County. The deals are certainly still out there with many people picking up the foreclosures and short sales of today's market. We just have to fight a little harder to grab one. Many of the new home builders are busy writing contracts right and left. There aren't as many incentives thrown out as there was previously and even more noticeable, there's not as many builders building. Home inventory is down and the numbers tell the story. Lowered home sales inventory (down to 2200 homes in Loudoun County in July 2009), lowered days on the market (62 days on the market as opposed to 100+ day a year or two ago), historically low interest rates and first-time tax credits (which will expire soon in November unless extended by the Federal government) are making all the difference.

Things haven't looked this good in a long time. I'll keep my fingers crossed that we really have hit the bottom and are on our way back to a normal and healthy real estate market. We are not totally out of the woods yet but rays of sunshine are finally starting to filter through and it feels good!

Vicky Noufal
Noufal ~ Shea ~ Spelbring
'The Power of 3'
703-402-5416

Clarifying the $8,000 Homebuyer Credit

Are you a First Time Home Buyer Looking for a Free $8,000?



If so, the government may have something that will work for you! The government stimulus package included an $8,000 tax credit for first time home buyers AND people who have not been homeowners for the last three years. What this means for you is that the $8,000 can be utilized immediately upon purchasing your home for downpayment, closing cost or a bridge loan.



But, that $8,000 credit only applies to families purchasing homes between January 1, 2009 and December 1, 2009. Don't delay -- get all the details by calling a member of our team. In some areas prices are actually starting to rise.



Your Next VA Home Team -- Personal Service with Team Support!



Start shopping now with our free MLS search here!



Jodi Spelbring

Jodi@JodiSellsVA.com

703-625-4667

How's the real estate market in Loudoun County, VA?

How is the real estate market in Loudoun County, VA? The number question I get asked daily and frequently. I believe we are turning the corner and things are improving every day. I am seeing multiple offers on many properties and things are popping. Even homes in the upper price brackets are getting more showings and yes, more offers...

What has changed? The number of foreclosures are trickling out into the marketplace very slowly making short sales the hot new thing. I think a reduced inventory of homes (single family home inventory down 30% from the same time last year) coupled with incredibly good interest rates and wonderful tax incentives have given this market a great big boost. The Spring market is typically the busiest time of the year and real estate (no matter which kind of market we are in) is based on life driven events. People are relocating, getting married, upsizing and downsizing. People are in general more hopeful and it feels good to be busy.

If you have any question about real estate and/or living in Loudoun or Fairfax County, please call me at 703-402-5416.

Vicky Noufal
Century 21 Redwood Realty

Stimulus and Northern Virginia Real Estate Market - The REAL Real Estate Market

Greetings!
I am sure you have been hearing a lot of information about what is going on with the stimulus package – designed to help jump start the economy and lagging home sales. But, since all real estate is local, I thought I’d share my take on what is happening in the market, some relevant county information, regional trends and some information about the stimulus. If you’d like to receive a neighborhood specific analysis, please let me know. I would be happy to provide you with that information.

First things first!
The stimulus package has been signed into law and provides great incentives for first time home buyers to get into the market now! In fact, I have learned that if you are a first time home buyer (or renter who has not owned a home within 3 years), and you close on your home before the April tax deadline, you will get immediate access to that $8,000 tax credit. Read all about the stimulus package here on Realtor.org. There are also new loan limits for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae that have helped boost affordability of home buying for all types of buyers. Talk to a lender (or your tax professional) to get the specifics on how these items relate to your situation. If you would like recommendations of someone to talk with, I am happy to refer you to a pro that I trust.

Time for Action! Tax Credits, Great Values and Interest Rates at Historic Lows!!
Conforming (non-Jumbo) home loan limits have been increased in our area to $729,500, allowing for much more affordable rates for all types of loans! That coupled with the drop in interest rates are really heating up the market! Interest rates saw a recent drop into the 4 ½ – 5% range (Jumbos are in the 6 ½% range) which make buying more affordable now. With sales prices considerably lower, on average, area wide -- the area is much more affordable for first time home buyers, investors and those looking to move up to a larger home. Remember if you are buying and selling in the same market, you may receive less on the selling side, but you will make up for those losses on the buying side.

Across the Region in 2008
The home price trends in Northern Virginia show a considerable decline in sales prices over the last few years. 2008 took the largest hit on prices across the region as a whole. Fairfax, Prince William and Loudoun Counties all saw an astounding 20 – 30% decline in prices from 2007 to 2008 across the board. The average price in the 4th quarter of 2008 declined 9.2% from the previous quarter and 28.1% from 4th quarter 2007. The total time homes were listed for sale (Days on market) averaged 99 days in the 4th quarter - 98 days in the 3rd quarter 2008. But the number of homes sold increased considerably.

Days on Market are leveling off, seeing more of a flat line, and as you can see in the following information for January 2009 data, those numbers are changing. While this isn’t yet an indicator that prices will begin to rise, it does show some stabilizing. AND, the number of homes selling shows an increase in demand. That coupled with more limited supply of listings (fewer homes on the market), could indicate that we are near or at the bottom. Some communities may have already seen the bottom and could begin to see modest price increases if demand continues. Ultimately, we won’t know where the bottom of the market is until it is behind us. What we do know is that demand for well priced homes in good condition is leading to situations where we see multiple contracts and bidding wars, above the asking price of the home.


Promising News for Early 2009
Though it is only February, we have already seen big changes in the market this January versus 2008. There has been a huge increase in the number of home purchases AND the average days on market have dropped considerably. The number of homes available – versus average homes sold per month (Month’s Supply) is down significantly, making this a great time for would be sellers to get their homes listed. The news of the stimulus coupled with extremely low interest rates are bringing more buyers into the market. This coupled with fewer active listings means less competition from other sellers.

Greater Northern Virginia Statistics*
Jan-08 Jan-09 % Change
Homes Sold 1,379 2,132 55.51%
Days on Market 105 129 -18.65%
Sales Price $303,275 $422,591 -28.23%
Active Listings 8,831 11,500 -25.36%
Month’s Supply** 7.17 14.95 -52.01%

County Specific Updates are available for Loudoun, Fairfax and Prince William (our primary markets), but didn't come through to be easily posted here. Please email or call me if you'd like me to send them your way.

The sales prices in many counties have declined significantly across the board. However, there are some neighborhoods that have been the driving factor in those declines. Some areas in PW and Loudoun Counties, for example, had substantial numbers of sub-prime loans, which have gone into foreclosures and have brought the overall county statistics down sharply. So, while these numbers may be alarming, and a guide of what has happened on a more local level, every neighborhood should be looked at independently to judge the value of those homes as well as the buying and selling conditions.

Real Estate is a Long Term Investment

For those of us who bought homes during the peak, or near-peak, this news is difficult to swallow. We have to remember that real estate is a long term investment. John McClain, an economist with George Mason University said recently on an interview on WTOP News that if you look at how prices have risen over the last 10 years, even with this significant market correction, homes have still appreciated an average amount. This means real estate prices are in line with normal growth patterns. What we experienced in the early part of this decade was atypical. And, it will take some time to build those values back. It is, however a great time to continue to maintain the value in your home. Continue to do quality maintenance and repairs. Upgrade the home so that you can enjoy living in it for a few years to come. Don’t make the mistakes so many of us do and wait to upgrade or even paint your home just before you sell it. You may discover that you love your home even more if you give it a little TLC.

Please let me know if you have any questions about the information I have provided, or if you’d like to speak with me about your neighborhood. Remember, I am neither an economist, nor a tax attorney nor a CPA. I am gathering this information from various sources including MRIS, the local MLS board that I belong to and the market that I see on a daily basis as a licensed Realtor®. If you question the data, please feel free to contact MRIS at www.mris.com. I am reporting the information I receive there.

And, if you know someone looking to buy or sell their home, it would be my pleasure to help them.

Jodi Spelbring
Jodi@JodiSellsVA.com
703-625-4667

Snow in March!

What do you know? Snow in March!! So nice to take in a snow day every once in a while, everyone's busy day comes to a screeching halt. Had a great day with the kids, catching up on life in general. Have a wonderful evening tonight. I'll be back with my Realtor hat back on tomorrow, ready to go again.

Vicky Noufal

National Harbor - Something New

Last Sunday's glorious weather prompted my family and I in search of something new and fun to do...and we found it at National Harbor, located very close to Alexandria but across the border in Maryland. We had a blast enjoying the walk along the sandy walking trail, enjoyed shops, a multitude of restaurants and fantastic views of the water. There are several hotels if you want to overnight there including the famous Gaylord Resort and Conference Center. Be sure to walk into the atrium of the conference center which offers a tropical garden oasis, four restaurants, beautiful fountains and even a small Colonial Williamsburg gift store (which is totally up my alley). There are a number of events and cruises you can enjoy. Be sure to check out their website at www.NationalHarbor.com. We had a great time and are looking forward to going back in the summertime. Don't forget your camera!! There are lots of photo opportunities to take advantage of.

Vicky Noufal
703-402-5416

DC Metro Area - Prices are Near or At the Bottom Says GMU Economist

Listen to this story on WTOPNews.com outlining the Washington DC area's buyer's market. He says we are near or at the bottom. In particular, he touches on Prince William County which has seen the biggest turn around. PRices are down 41% but sales are up 200% from last year. Prices are now more affordable for investors & home buyers. New home foreclosures in Prince William are at 1/2 of what they were in 2008 -- signalling this could be the end of the sliding prices.

Listen here - scroll down to "Buyer's Market in Housing" John McClain, George Mason University

Good news for the buyers out there & for the sellers, who should be able to hold onto the equity that they have in their homes now.

Jodi Spelbring
Jodi@JodiSellsVA.com
703-625-4667
www.YourNextVAHome.com

Fairfax County Real Estate Statistics

According to our MLS data (MRIS), the following data was recorded for Fairfax County homes for December of 2008.

2008 2007 % Change

Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 463,887,046 $ 454,787,544 2.00 %
Average Sold Price: $ 403,380 $ 540,128 - 25.32 %
Median Sold Price: $ 320,000 $ 430,000 - 25.58 %
Total Units Sold: 1,150 842 36.58 %
Average Days on Market: 96 112 - 14.29 %
AvG. List Price for Solds: $ 444,292 $ 595,870 - 25.44 %
Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price: 90.79 % 90.65 %


I thought this was good data to publish as it's a great indicator of the overall market. Sales prices have decreased by 25% since December of 2007 and buyers are recognizing the good values out there thereby increasing our total units sold for 2008 by 36%! This is indeed a great time to buy a home. More and more investors are starting to come out and play again. The numbers are finally starting to make sense.

Vicky Noufal
703-402-5416

Multiple Offers Making a Comeback : HGTV FrontDoor Real Estate

Check out this article on multiple offers making a comeback! No, I'm not kidding with you. It's true and it can be hard work to find the one. It's also an exciting and exhilirating process to go through. Everyone can recognize a good value and for the good properties that come out there, it's a very hot market. There are some wonderful opportunties out there to purchase homes under market value and at exceptionally good interest rates. If you would like more information on these properties, please give me a call. Let the good times roll!

Vicky Noufal
703-402-5416

Multiple Offers Making a Comeback : HGTV FrontDoor Real Estate

5 Top Blunders in Internet Home Buying

I came across this article in US News & World Report and thought it might be of interest. Today's buyers utilize the internet for a lot of their research. Of course it is a great tool, but there is a reason why Realtors are licensed and trained to assist their clients in home selection and purchase. Take a read and make sure you aren't caught by one of these mistakes.

http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/real-estate/2009/01/07/5-top-blunders-of-internet-home-buying.html

To learn more about the home buying process, check out our buyer's guide on our brand new website -- you can also search the MLS for free - no registration required.

http://www.yournextvahome.com/buying-with-us-c12105.html

Happy reading on this cold winter morning.

Jodi Spelbring
703-625-4667

The Perfect Cure for Cabin Fever!

One of the best kept secrets of Loudoun County is the abundance of nature trails and county owned conservation areas.

I have lived in Leesburg for 5 years and have seen the growth of the county take place right around my home. In order to succeed in my line of work, I have made it a point to keep with the new and upcoming development. One thing that I have overlooked the past few years, is the accessablility and beauty of all of the nature preserves and conservation areas in all of Northern Virginia.

Toward the end of the winter break ... (15 day long holiday!!)... I started going stir crazy! In a spontaneous manner, which I often do, I said to my husband and kids , "Get ready, we're going on a hike!" (Their Response-"YAHOO!!! " )

Within 10 minutes, we were in the mini-van... jackets, scarves, mittens and hiking boots on... pulling into the parking lot of a historic park ---literally in our back yard---ready to begin our adventure!!!!

We went to the Red Rock Wilderness Overlook Regional Park http://www.nvrpa.org/parks/redrock/index.php. Let's be clear, I have 3 children between the ages of 4 and 6, so I was not looking for an intense adventure. The trails at this park were just enough to get our adrenalin going and hearts pumping.

There were several paths to choose from with varied terrain and distance options. We chose the Yellow trail...perfect for my group. The trails were in great condition... easy to navigate and clear from debris, yet still maintaining it's natural setting. My kids loved breathing the fresh air, and actually commented on the clean air that they were breathing! Woah..Al Gore would be proud!

After a manageable amount of time, we came to a cross trail. While pondering which way to go next, I looked up and saw a breathtaking view of the Potomac River...( I guess this is why they call the park "Overlook"! ) We decided to head toward the river.

To get there, we had to repel (on a 6-10 year old level,of course) down the cliff to get to the edge of the river. That was a blast and the scenic moutains behind the river were beautiful!

After throwing stones and looking for fish along the coast line (remember, 4 years old!) we decided to head back on a different path.

We made it back up the hills and through the woods just in time for sunset!

It was defininelty the best cure for our cabin fever!

Northern Virginia Regional Park Authority has wonderful, family friendly places to visit and things to do throughout all six of it's jurisdictions: City of Alexandria, City of Fairfax, City of Falls Church, Arlington County, Fairfax County and Loudoun County.


You must visit the website and look at all there is to do.... http://www.nvpra.org .... Canoeing, camping, golfing, water parks, nature trails, nature centers, farms, historic sites and tours and so much more!!! Best of all, many are free!!

I can't wait to explore more!

Here is the next event I saw on their calendar.. Check it out and let me know you thoughts!

• Jan. 11 2009 Meadowlark Botanical Gardens"Tour of Meadowlark's Greenhouses"2:00 p.m.

Here's to finding adventures in our own back yard!!

Carmelle Shea